Just after nine on 1 August in the evening could be a red letter sports day for South Africa when Tatjana Smith dives into the pool to compete in the 200m-breaststroke at the Paris Olympics.
If she wins, the swimmer will be the second South African athlete to win gold in the same event at two consecutive Olympic Games. Caster Semenya won the 800 metres at the 2012 London Games and in 2016 at the Rio Games.
Smith has “BMT” (big match temperament). Or, to put it another way, when the going gets tough, Smith gets going. Her results are proof. Since 2018, she has medalled at every major event she has competed in.
Her gold medal heroics include winning the 200m breaststroke during the Tokyo Olympic Games, the 2022 World Championships, the 2018 and 2022 Commonwealth Games and the 2019 World University Games. The swimmer also set a world record during the Tokyo Games. Last year, she was the first South African female swimmer to win a world-long course swimming title.
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When talking to Rocco Meiring (TuksSwimming head coach), he emphasised that it might be foolish to speculate what could or could not happen during the Paris Olympics. Referring to an article that appeared in SwimSwam last month.
“This summer, the Olympic Games will take place in Paris. And, as usual, there is a lot of expectation for outstanding performances, legendary races and, of course, world records. Many will try to guess who the winners and medalists of the swimming events will be. Obviously, it is tough to predict who they will be,” Daniel Takata wrote for SwimSwam.
Using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and the extreme performances of athletes (fastest times in the world). SwimSwam took the times of the 100 fastest performers in each year, in each event since 1990, to predict the estimated fastest time this year in each event. Which is expected to be at the Games. According to this formula, the winning time in Paris for the women’s 200m breaststroke could be 2:18.63.
To put this in perspective, last year Russia’s Evgenia Chikunova set a world record for swimming a time of 2:17.95. Smith’s world record time in 2021 was 2:18.95. So far this year, Smith is the fastest, having swam 2:19.01.
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Meiring expects Chikunova to compete at the Paris Games.
“There is no official confirmation about this, but there are strong rumours that she will be in Paris. I have Tatjana to prepare herself to swim against the Russians. Tatjana will have her work cut out if she wants to win gold in the 200m-breaststroke again.”
According to Meiring, Smith’s build-up to the Games did not quite go as planned. Early this season, she sustained a Grade 2 tear in a muscle crucial in upper body movements when swimming. On doctor’s advice, Smith took a ten-day break from training.
“The doctor even warned Tatjana about competing at the National Championships. Saying that if she aggravated the injury, there was a risk that she could be sidelined for between six to eight months.
“Tatjana was adamant that she was going to compete. The doctor advised that if she does, she should only swim the heats. It did not happen. Tatjana changed her swimming technique to put less stress on the injured muscle and swam every final and won.”
